A Self-Distancing Opportunity

Laguna's traffic congestion is way down due to the COVID-19 "self-distancing" measure. The stay-at-home order, isolation and mass layoffs contributed to reduced distance traveled by these amounts:

• California down 36%
• California number of miles driven down 53%
• LAX Air traffic down 85%
• San Francisco (all vehicle modes) down 70%
• LA & OC 405 speeds averaging over 70mph 
• Update: Accidents down 50% -LAT

Traffic speeds up shown in green -Google

With reduced motor vehicles on our roads and the Laguna Beach Trolley shut-down, now is a good time to try Laguna's bike-routes while complying with "self-distancing" rule.

GOOGLE Maps shows LB "bike-friendly" routes in blue. Maybe GOOGLE didn't get the memo.

Google Maps bike-friendly routes in Laguna Beach

For more charts on distance traveled, flight delays, empty SoCal freeways see this LA Times article.

-LS 

TCA Toll Roads Debt Never Ends

TCA Toll Roads

The SoCal Toll Roads consist of the SR-73, SR-133, SR-241, SR-261 and "SR-241 Completion" through San Clemente and managed by the Transportation Corridor Agency, the TCA. The roads occupy three geographic regions, the Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor (FETCA), the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor (SJHTCA), and the SR-241 Completion portion of the SJHTCA. 36-miles of roads were completed in 1999, the SR-241 Completion portion will complete the project for 52 miles total in this analysis. No more roads were constructed since 1999.

In 1987 the roads were initially financed by toll fees to begin planning design and construction of the projects. Other finance sources were these:

• Revenue Bonds: Interest, Convertable CABS, Term Rate, Liens 
• Development Impact Fees (DIF)
• Toll Revenue
• Toll Fines and Fees

Early Toll Road bonds were issued in 1995 with initial maturity planned for 2035. The bonds were restructured in 2013, 2014, and 2018 to benefit from lower interest rates and to repackage debt financing with extended maturity dates.

The charts show the debt and income incurred to finance these roads over the lifetime of the project, from 1987 when the first toll revenues were collected to 2053 - the planned maturity date of the latest bonds issued.  The first chart shows the monies contributing to the road financing, over 270 sources in all.

Prior to 2013 the revenues were actual realized income, after 2013 the income from toll revenue, fees, fines and developer fees were projected through optimistic forecasting till bond maturity in 2053. All values in these charts are annualized per year.
  

 

The next chart shows the net income from all sources, annualized per year. Look closely at the chart prior to 2013, the income from toll revenue and all other sources cannot pay the bond debt service. After redeeming the bonds in 2014 and refinancing, the new debt financing reaches break-even in 2029 and forecasts a profitable outlook till 2053. But remember the revenues after 2013 are FORECASTS and hypothetical, they are not actual revenue collected.

This next chart shows the truth about these toll roads: the debt never stops. Past performance of these roads show the revenue collections did not pay for the bond debt service, the projected revenues show wishful forecasts of debt service on bonds. 

The last chart shows the total cost of revenues, debt service, and operations in the bullets above, for 52 miles of completed toll roads.  

TAKE-AWAY: If light rail costs $10 million per mile, a new rail system could be built every year from 2006 to 2053 for the cost of this toll road, that is 48 light rail systems each 52 miles long.

The annualized costs increase beyond the bond maturity date.  For the Toll Roads to arrive in this financial state the accounting practices of the TCA are in serious question. See NotMyTollRoad for more details. Story in the LB Patch here.

-LS